A Survival Plan

North Korea – Rockets and Submarines

Posted on April 11, 2012 by L P

source: Reuters Media

North Korea is fueling its satellite launching rocket today, 04-11-2012. The 3-stage rocket /missile is a liquid fueled machine supposedly carrying a 100kg weather satellite. Three current news article follow:

I suspect there will be a launch, and there will be very tight sphincters in 4 world capitals. In all the hub-bub about the rocket situation though, the big news from last week seems to have dried up.

These 4 submarines are similar to the type used to sink the Cheonan. After they left port, they were “lost”. South Korea is on the lookout for them, Japan has said it will assist, and the US has possibly two nuke boats looking for them. On top of that, there is a source that claims two carriers are on their way. Looking at locations, it appears that the USS Washington (CVN 73) and USS Essex (LHD 2) are in the area and available.

Source: telegraph.co.uk Along with Japanese land and sea forces slated toward shooting down the rocket if it passes over Japanese air space, their is quite a bit of tension over these two North Korean actions. It is possible that the missing subs are tasked with attacking South Korean warships in the event of the rocket meeting grief at anyone’s hands. Targeting a warship in busy waters, with arguably mediocre technology, might result in the wrong nation’s vessel getting torpedoed. I think the loose cannon reputation of the north, combined with the increasing emotional levels in the area, are certainly cause for concern on everyone’s minds.

The north has done nothing to help the situation. In fact, they are allowing rumors of an upcoming underground nuclear test to flourish. The third leg of the north’s triad of military brinkmanship.

The lack of further information on the missing subs leave a very loud hole of silence in the news reporting over there. It stands as a void that can not be ignored, at least not by this spectator. I believe we will hear about one or more of this boats soon enough, tied to the rocket in some way. Rockets and torpedoes, while worlds apart in design and operation, seem to be quite closely linked over the next week or so….

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The Sub of all Fears

Posted on April 7, 2012 by L P

North Korea has mad much of it upcoming “satellite” launch on the tip of a 3 stage rocket marginally capable of ICBM usage. It has said that any attempt to shoot it down would be considered an act of war. This week’s successful deployment of diesel /electric submarines into waters where they have shaken contact seems to add teeth to their usually empty threats.

South Korea is looking for them, and Japan may very well be giving them assistance. There might even be a US boat or two playing in those waters.

With South Korea’s joint war games redeploying assets away from the boundary line, it may be possible for the NK submarines to get deep into SK waters. The Cheonan sinking in 2010 is still fresh in SK naval minds. The timing for this deployment is bad. It is no surprise that Japan would assist in looking for these boats, since their PM gave a very strong and unexpected speech against North Korean space ambitions, stating that this launch might be against UN rules and non-proliferation efforts. Bot South Korea and Japan have an interest in limiting NK nuclear technology advancement.

What does all this mean to you? Not much, at this point. I think that the average prepper should watch for what the Chinese might say or do. North Korea is a kind of mentally retarded nephew to China, and China claims to be prepared to support any attacks against the little relative. That is worth remembering when reading news reports that are slow to come forward, but sure to do so as things develop. This story took days to coalesce after basic sources initially made the connections.

Outcome? Likely nothing.
Potential for bad news due to bad actors? Moderate.
Kind of results from bad actors acting? Horrible.
On a scale from 1 – 10, 10 being TSHTF, a 2.

A factoid to remember: The tech required to successfully place a satellite into orbit is very much related to placing a nuclear reentry device into an apical position for free fall…. in other words, satellite launching tech is very similar to ballistic warhead delivery. It’s the first and most difficult half of the ICBM targeting problem.

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Adaptability

Posted on April 5, 2012 by L P

JJ over at http://www.realitysurvival.com recently posted an article on adaptability. He asked a question at the end. “What things can you suggest for helping people to remain adaptable in their Bug Out Plans?”

I answered with (spelling errors and all….)

“Mobility and Communication are important in ground ops for the soldier, and also for the Prepper. The Prepper needs flexibility in hid bug-out transportation options, including a way to stay put if mobility somehow is denied him. ON FOOT might be his only recourse.

Having a way to communicate is good, too. This assume he has someone to communicate WITH. If solo, or a lone wolf, he should have to means of receiving information whether en route, or at his end point. Knowledge of the situation and new events can be critical. The news can also help him determine when it is okay to return home.

GPS is nice, but maps are forever. Good maps, map reading skills and a decent compass should be in any bug out pack. Topographic supplements to standard maps can be helpful, too, especially if moving cross-country.”

After thinking about it a bit, I thought it might do to expand on that a little.

“Bugging Out” means many things to many people, and it all has to do with the starting and end points, and the myriad concerns along the way. The needs and means of a bug out will be different for just about everyone. And for each bug out plan, there may be necessary alterations unforeseen until they manifest themselves on the road.

“Adaptable“. JJ’s question is huge in scope. “What things can you suggest for helping people to remain adaptable in their Bug Out Plans?” Since describing all bug outs with a simple set of conditions is laughably absurd, it would seem that presenting a framework for bug out adaptability would be equally foolish.

It isn’t….

Adaptability suggests the existence of available options, and the ability to apply them to changing conditions. For the bugger-out, adaptability is knowing what to do and how to do it, and with which resources. Bug out techniques and tools are usable in many situations.

Let’s set some loose definitions pertaining to the bug out.
Bug-out: Getting away alive, and staying that way on the run, or until arrival at the BOL.
Mobility: Moving, by any means, and at any speed, with or without delays.
Surviving: Maintaining health while en route.
Communications: Passive or active information exchange or collection, electronic or otherwise.
Navigation: Self-guided passage through an area, with reference materials and /or tools.

Creating Adaptability

How do you create adaptability in your bug out plan? Provide yourself with options. I’ll present you with yet another LIST that has the same disclaimer that all lists have which is: “This list in no way represents the complete spectrum of options available blah, blah, blah….” Yes, I hate lists, too, but they are indispensable to the planning prepper. The trick here is for you to create your own list, using this one, or another as a starting point. Tailor it to your bug out needs, fears, concerns and expectations. Do what you will, but provide yourself with OPTIONS.

Mobility. Consider various modes of transportation. Some could be called “primary”, and others “secondary”. Practical back-up is always desirable. Which of these might fit your needs? Which might serve as a back-up alternative to another?

Foot
Bicycle
Scooter or Motorcycle
Car or Truck
Commercial vehicle or RV
Horse or Mule
Kayak, Boat
Airplane, Helicopter or Ultra-lite aircraft

Surviving. Staying alive while transiting involves food and water, shelter, first-aid and defenses. It is a huge topic, and if you think about it, EVERY survivalist /prepper web site on the net attempts to make a career out of describing this in detail. I’ll try to condense it into another list….

Food. Prepared food, and food in the wild. Includes foods of any type. Learn how to “harvest” while on foot if need be. Carry the small fold-out guides to vegetation for the bug out areas.
Water. Carry water, but purification and filtration too. Water is heavy, and the person on the move needs a lot of it. Without a vehicle equipped to carry it, alternate sources will be needed. The quality of those sources is not guaranteed. Never trust that clear water is safe water.
Shelter. Vehicle, RV, tent, tarp, poncho. Have some sort of secondary resource in your things. At a minimum, know how to seek or build shelter from available materials.
First-aid. Full service First-Aid kit, with blood stop and wound treatment /management. Think cuts, punctures, tears, abrasions, bites and infections.
Defenses. With what are you skilled or comfortable? Firearms, bow or crossbow, slingshot, sword, machete, knife, spear, martial arts or other hand-to-hand fighting skills. Dogs, trip-wire, flash units. Vehicle alarms, cameras, perimeter alarms.

Communications. Without some way of gathering information, your view of the changing world may be limited to only what your eyes can see, and what passing contacts might tell you. Assuming for the moment that you are on foot, or using some means devoid of vehicle power, the presence of a portable shortwave combination radio will provide a wide range of information sources. Various bands can be monitored for news and information. These receivers are safe in that they don’t broadcast and give away your position.

Hand held HAM radios provide two-way comms that are not possible with “CB” sets. Their range is greater and, if repeater stations are online, you can make contact over even longer distances. Since it might be possible for others to locate you, establishing rules for when and how you will speak to others should be established.

Navigation. Getting from point to point is easy with the latest in GPS, or with excellent maps and the tools to use them. Since any GPS worth its salt will teach you how to use it, I’ll make a few points about maps. To start, you can visit our page of map links. Consider that a map and a compass won’t need batteries. They will give you more information about terrain and physical features than any GPS. Crossing overland is easier with detailed maps. If the military decides to enact one of their degradation programs, and throw off GPS coordinates, your map will be unaffected. You won’t really notice the difference in carry weight if you are on foot. Having both electronic and print navigational aids provides you with primary and backup tools. In the event that you lose both, having geolocating skills is you most likely fallback.

Posted in Planning, Security | 2 Comments

Developing a Plan – Revisited

Posted on April 1, 2012 by L P

We ran a short (incomplete) series of articles a while back, starring a fictional couple of their way to building their plan. Here are links to the four published parts:

The “Jack & Jill” series will be taken up again this week for Part V. In the meantime, though, I’d like to share some points collected before the series was started, and submit them for your consideration. If you are new to prepping, these 5 posts should help you wrap your mind around the problems of, “Where can I start?” and “Can I be successful?” The answers are, “In your imagination and YES.”

So you decide that a plan is in order, but you don’t know where to start. Well, then, let’s look first at what a “plan” is.

plan – from http://dictionary.reference.com/

1. a scheme or method of acting, doing, proceeding, making, etc., developed in advance: battle plans.
2. a design or scheme of arrangement: an elaborate plan for seating guests.

A plan, for most purposes, can be defined as an ordered list of steps toward achieving a future goal. As pertains to prep plans, almost all preparation materials involve money – money that must be managed. Money management is greatly streamlined by the use of a budget.

budget -

1. an estimate, often itemized, of expected income and expense for a given period in the future.
2. a plan of operations based on such an estimate.
3. an itemized allotment of funds, time, etc., for a given period.
4. the total sum of money set aside or needed for a purpose: the construction budget.

A budget, for the prepper, is developed with specific detailed cash allotments to fund the plan. Both work together, and must be tuned and adjusted in progress, with careful thought, in order to profit the most from a cash source.

A survival plan then, simply stated, is a method of ensuring the survival of particular individuals, enabled by the intelligently guided usage of resources prior to the onset of _____ (fill in your scenario of concern).

Keep in mind that no one can plan for everything. In order to ensure survival during ____, the wise move is to make a well-informed decision as to what situations could actually occur. If _____ doesn’t happen, some of those preps might be wasted.

Three-fer. I try to go by the “Three-fer” concept. The Three-fer idea states that any significant expense should provide something that has at least three uses. An example might be an RV. It provides recreation, a mobile bug-out residency, and a place for family members to live if their financial world comes apart. Three uses, at a minimum, readily available when needed, with present and future application. More for your dollar.

Use your imagination!

Review your available resources, and your ability to add to them, and see just how many scenarios can be adequately mitigated. For instance… a family on the Mississippi delta is concerned about these items:

Hurricanes
Flooding
Economy
Nuclear conflict

After playing with different budget configurations, the parents decide that their income can not cover everything they would desire. The cash flow just isn’t there. They dispense with the fallout shelter stocked to the rafters with supplies. Instead, they decide to build a storm shelter /fallout shelter combination on the back of the property, above the flood line, and position it so that it can act as a defensive position. The cash saved from not going whole hog on the full-boat shelter is used to build a simple covered cache, similar to a root cellar, and store supplies there. The two are connected by a trench that marries the two entrances. To save more money, they do as much as the work as possible by hand, contracting out only the delivery and settling of the pre-built shelter ordered from one of the many builders found online.

Your budget makes clear to you just what cash is available for investment into food, medical, misc supplies, equipment and schooling in various skills. By running a budget, you are able to make determinations as to what stays, what goes, and what comes into your life. Stretching the budget involves being creative. In the above example, the family saw that they could cover the shelter with heavy timber, and mound dirt above it to a thickness of 4 feet, and thus create the needed shielding for an effective fallout shelter. Their entrance is a covered trench of the same treatment, with a 90 degree bend leading to steps up to the surface, and a path to the supply cache. All of this is done by hand – sweat equity – saving funds for other uses. Saved were the expenses of; excavating a bigger hole, back filling that hole, purchasing a bigger shelter and shipping that shelter. Further, since the shelter was built on and into a berm, they saved even more on the excavation. By building their own HEPA filter system, they were able to pass on buying a professionally built unit. Budgets help you determine what is realistic, and encourage imaginative ways to save money, and get hold of things that might originally appear impossible to acquire.

The Jack and Jill scenario to be picked-up this week will continue to showcase the exciting journey that our fictional couple undertook. Part V gets into their creation and defining of the “Lists of Everything” – Rule #3 of “J&J’s Rules for Prepping”.

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“Doomsday” Shows

Posted on March 31, 2012 by L P

Let’s get something straight right now, before there are too many other dreams of stardom that override common sense. If you want to star on a show, find one that has nothing to do with Doomsday this or Doomsday that. Go on a sitcom, or some cooking reality show. No one that appears on one of these “preppers shows” will ever be able to regain anonymity. No one that signs a contract for rights and rewards will be able to trade those for the relative security they possessed before signing on the dotted lines. Is say “relative” only because the mindset that existed before the casting call or solicitation would likely have, and probably had already, blown the cover of its owner.

One of the most important rules that all Preppers need to consider is something like this: I will not expose myself, or those I work to secure, to the prying eyes and desires of strangers. A prepper will not have his or her work destroyed by advertising to one and all the fact that he is, in any significant way, working to enhance his security. This rule is generally only broken or modified when in a community setting – such as getting the neighborhood up to speed on hurricane or tornado security, flood preparations for a town, wild fire evacuation plans and buddy systems, etc…. In other words – anyhting that is a group effort wherein no one individual is at risk for participating. For the “Doomsday Prepper”, letting the world in on the results of your efforts does no more than invite theft or worse when the crud this the blades.

If a prepper is responsible for the safety and well being of others in his family or in is circle of friends, risking them and theirs for a moment of publicity is a sin – straight up. It is treason to their expectations, hopes and rights for a prepper to publicize the who, what and where. I don’t care what the show producer promises, or even contracts. Once the episode is aired, it is forever available in electronic form for any and all to review to their own little black hearts’ contentment. There remains no recourse to retract what is published. It can be studied, picked apart and categorized in any manner a potential thief so desires. That “prepper” has no right to risk the lives of those for whom he is responsible.

Some with whom I have discussed this new phenomenon on the air waves say something along these lines, “But it has brought so many to consider preparing.” This is certainly true, but it is not the only way this could happen. No prepping show has to share faces, locations and names. The manner in which these are being produced is not the ONLY manner in which to create them. I see stunning carelessness for the safety of the showcased preppers. It can and should be done with security in mind, to the point of almost boring anonymity – but that will not sell advertising and DVD collections.

If you are a real prepper, approached and tempted by fame and money – don’t do it! Keep in mind, that your more strong-willed brothers will not go on, because of the rule.

I would junk these shows, anyway. In the end, the public understanding of the responsible prepper community as a whole will be greatly separated from the truth – and they will believe in a way that puts at risk everything you do to prepare. Do you wish to be called a hoarder? Paranoid? Unpatriotic? I tell you that such will be the case. The only questions about this are, “When?” and “By whom?”

Because there are so many willing to destroy your efforts for their fame, you must now be all the more careful in your conversations. Getting labels slapped on you is many more times easy, right now. My advise to anyone of a preparedness mindset is this: Keep your mouth closed until you have vetted the person to whom you wish to speak. Unless you have the safety of knowing that this or that stranger would never find out who you are or where you live, forget about spreading the word. Due to these shows, bringing “it” up is now an invitation, whether you like it or not.

Practice discretion.

Practice security.

Practice using your brain…..

Posted in Information Security, Planning, Rambling | Leave a comment

Nuclear War, Personal Considerations

Posted on March 28, 2012 by L P

In 1983, we were well within the danger zone of a nuclear exchange with the USSR. Reagan’s presidency was in its second year, and the man was still fighting the demons of nuclear holocaust. So was I. Standing in a line at the administration building of my local university, I heard a conversation behind me between two smartly dressing young men. Their subject was the choice of an eventual major. The first student had no clue, but the second – he knew exactly what he wanted to get into. “Anything that will help me study and master thermonuclear war.” Those words chilled me, quite literally. Earlier, I had visited one of the larger buildings on campus, and saw the Civil Defense Fallout Shelter sign above a very wide concrete stairway leading to the basement. There were others on campus. They were not for show. I was well aware of what the Soviets were capable of doing, since I had studied some of their warfare philosophy, spoken with Air Force personnel, questioned a neighbor that worked for the DoD, and listened in on some of her conversations with colleagues whenever I thought I could get away with it.

1983 was a big year. The Soviets were clearly getting their posteriors handed to them in their fourth year in Afghanistan. The “Soviet Vietnam”. Their own little quagmire. Soviet statism was being dealt a severe blow to the ego. Nationalistic pride, though greatly manipulated via Pravda and Izvestia, was regardless a very real force. To the leadership in the Kremlin, keeping up appearances and working to pigeon-hole President Reagan were much the same game. Reagan was enjoying a few successes, and proving to be what the KGB’s own dossier on the man claimed, someone that meant what he said, no matter how well or ill informed. He would do as he said. Pressure was building. In March of that year, the president proposed SDI. This was a major ramping-up of nuclear tensions within the hearts of Soviet Politburo members. Pressures grew, and both sides of the “nuclear debate” flexed their muscle.

November of 1983 saw the release for TV of “The Day After”. It was widely proclaimed to show how hopeless surviving a nuclear war would be. For the prepper, though, it amazingly enough illustrated some of the efforts that could be made to prepare ahead of time and to deal with the after effects. Also shown were the effects of EMP, flash-blindness, blast damage and radiation poisoning. The film scared millions. It also encourage others who, taking a good long look, and watching the replay the next week, began their own journey into studying the facts regarding this kind of war. I saw it as both ugly and hopeful. The film covered a huge variety of aspects, even going into the military’s efforts at responding to the threat and reality of attack. It showed them being professional, which I liked to see. Something it did not show, though, was the prepared and expectant survivalist of the 1970s and 80s – those men and their families that were not scrambling to get things together, but were prepared – TRULY prepared. The release of this movie in November encouraged a lot of “prepper” type sales for Christmas. I believe this was the beginning of an open-eyes style of living for many Americans.

“The Day After” was propaganda against nuclear defenses, and what the left believed SDI would take us through. I don’t see it that way. When I recently viewed it online, scanning through some sections, I remembered how I felt that first night, and during the replay. It’s not the same for me, now. I’m a member of a very small camp that believes such a war is survivable, with the right preps. I go against the grain on many things, and this is just one more of them. A friend of mine said it’s because I don’t give in to sheep-think. That much is true, mostly. When I see this film now, I see mistakes made by the characters, places where I could improve on improvised preps, and where people sadly stood and watched, rather than acting to protect their lives. I’m posting links to the show in two parts. These are posted by “PeterPrepper” on Youtube.

The Day After, Part 1

The Day After, Part 2

Not to be outdone, the Brits aired their own version of post apocalyptic hell with “Threads”, late in 1984. The pressure was on Margaret Thatcher to break up her association with President Reagan. This film was part of that effort. With the Right strongly in hold of power, (the Falklands war and Granada were recent feathers in their caps), “Threads” was supposed to out-do “The Day After” by presenting the outcome of nuclear war in its most bleak representation. But it quickly fell into the shadows cast by major events in both countries. Mikhail Gorbachev had come to power in the Soviet Union, and the power plays between the three leaders were much more acceptable fair to the populations of their nations. The re-release of “Threads” a year later was a fizzle.

I was left with a very dark feeling after viewing it. It offered no real hope. Sure, people were alive, and society was taking on some kind of a stability that could be recognized, but there was no hope that people of great spirit and drive would emerge to rally those around them. “The Day After” at least showed a few with the ability to laugh, and I suppose that without some form of humor, there can be no triumph. So, yes…. I much preferred the American version of Doomsday, because even in the title, there was a Day After. Not just an eternal night filled with UV radiation.

I offer the link to “Threads” not because it is instructional, but because it is historical. This movie is both a counterpart and a sister to “The Day After”. I don’t really think the one can be considered without the other, from a historical perspective. As for usefulness to preppers, I think its one saving feature is the way in which stats and time lines were shown. This is a 2 hour documentary of one specific war-game. War games are important to a prepper because they enable thought processes to come to the fore that work through problems. They force one to consider and plan. And since this site is called “A Survival Plan”, it makes sense, on one level, to present this…. thing. Watch it if you must, but from the perspective of a planner studying methodology. Be prepared to be let down, if you are looking for any kind of “light” within it.

By the time “Threads” had come around, my own studies into nuclear war had shown me that preparation for it was possible, that surviving was possible and that remaining human was possible. The attempt by the Brits responsible for this show to sour me on the idea of supporting both national and personal preparation failed miserably. I had committed to the course, even though it was clear to me that I had done so only about 4 years later. I found that living for the sake of it, being nationalist during the Cold War and being a survivalist were all three entirely compatible and proper.

And I still believe that….

Threads