First Crimea, Now Ukraine. New USSR.

 

Say Hello to the CCCP

Ukraine is Putin’s Target

The above are two articles I wrote sharing information about Putin’s personal dream to rebuild the USSR. He wants all of Ukraine. Crimea was the first stop, largely because it was the easiest to nab. In bold and traditional style, he stirred up local dissent via infiltrators, and used that as his excuse for sauntering in and “helping” ethnic Russians take control of their lives. Remember Romania?  In exchange, Crimea fell to Russian expansionist desires. The next step was to build the same sort of fuax political pressure in eastern Ukraine. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. We are now in the middle stages of lathering up.

Control of Ukraine offers Russia many negative and positive changes. First, the welcome negatives.

  • No more resistance to paying energy debts
  • No more threats of pipeline shutdowns
  • No more “Nyet!” to special requests for base access

Next, the celebratory positives.

  • Control of all of Ukraine’s pipeline networks
  • A land route to the Crimea
  • Additional sea ports
  • And the big one, the return of one of Russia’s satellite states and the creation of a new CCCP

Taking eastern Ukraine and settling for the land route would be a disappointment. The easy access to Crimea and the sea would be enough reason to open the Smirnoff. It would also create a more forward position into which they could stage heavy armor and armored transport, advanced anti-air weaponry and even helicopter gunship bases.

Russia pincer strategy is splitting Ukrainian efforts which, up till this weekend, were winning the fight against the so-called separatists. Now, that effort is being redirected to deal with two invasion forces out of Russia, and with the artillery positioned within Russia that can only hit Ukrainian targets, based on their aim points.

From the Washington Post, 08/28/2014

“KIEV, Ukraine — Russian soldiers, tanks and heavy artillery began rolling into southeastern Ukraine in earnest Thursday, the Ukrainian government said, as well-armed detachments captured key towns, burned buildings and sent the underequipped Ukrainian forces into full retreat — a show of military force that the United States now considers an invasion in all but name.”

This Washington Post graphic tells the story. As you look at it, take a peek north of Kiev. See little ole Belarus perched above Ukraine? I’m betting Moscow has plans for them, too.

Pulling no punches, Russian military assets advanced and grabber territory.

“The Ukrainian military said that around 12:30 p.m. Thursday, two Russian columns of tanks and armored fighting vehicles entered the town of Novoazovsk on the Sea of Azov after firing on Ukrainian army positions with rockets launched from Russian territory, according to a Ukrainian military spokesman. The spokesman, Col. Andriy Lysenko, said that after a pitched battle the overmatched Ukrainian military forces retreated about 20 miles away to a position near Mariupol.”

 

From the New York Times, Ukraine Leader Says ‘Huge Loads of Arms’ Pour in From Russia

“MOSCOW — Supported by NATO satellite imagery showing Russian forces on the move in eastern Ukraine, its president accused Russia on Thursday of an invasion to aid the separatists, and his national security council ordered mandatory conscription to help counter what he called an “extremely difficult” threat.

….The conflict has escalated into the worst East-West confrontation since the Cold War, and the developments on the ground in the rebellious east along the Russian border suggested it would worsen.”

From Yahoo News – Russian Troops in Ukraine

and from Business Insider – Proof Russia is lying about its armed forces operating in Ukraine

The New Truth

The new truth, as revealed in today’s excellent articles by the press, accompanied by helpful graphics, is that the Russian position on the battlefield is that of a forward deployment arrayed to command as much territory as possible. They have moved out of the previously established muster zones on the Russian side of the border, and advanced on key Ukrainian towns and roadways. Their new posture presents Kiev with a new truth – Ukraine will fall as Putin desires, piece by piece. While not mentioned in articles, I consider Belarus to be a potential square on the chess board, to be taken as opportunity or expediency demands. As Putin carves off more and more from the Ukrainian hide, Kiev will find it harder to control the fears of its people, the efforts of its armed forces and the economy that supports it all.

Putin has latched on, and will bleed the Ukraine to death. As it dies, in the manner of the old USSR satellite states, Moscow will interject its evil spirit of empire into its victim, and raise it up as the New Soviet.

Say hello to the new CCCP.

How Does This Affect My Plan?

That is a huge question. In the worst case, it could be the first shot in a war that grows horribly out of control. I don’t see how that might progress, but I suppose it’s possible. After all, it is still amateur hour in D.C.. Pushed hard enough, Europe might decide on a course of sanctions that upset Putin by means of hitting him from the side. Don’t poke a bear with a stick.

The more reasonable expectations from all of this is an economic hit. The global marketplace is getting pushed around a bit, and I expect energy products to grow more expensive. When energy goes up, so do many seemingly unrelated prices.

A few years back, Russia cut supplies of heating oil to Europe. Many people froze. A repeat must be on their minds. How might that affect the Euro? What will it do to Germany’s stance on Euro strength and security? Will France have something more to sound off than mere snorts?

Hard to tell.

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