Say

Hello to the CCCP (USSR to you non-Cold War types…)

I’ve been spreading my opinion for a while, now, that our friend Putin is 100% KGB CCCP, and is nothing like the “New Russian” that the leftist media would have us believe. He was raised in the Soviet Union, trained by the KGB and is not bashful about reminiscing about the old days. He was a Cold War KGB thug then, and still has a love of the old USSR. He said that the future of the Russian Federation lies in bringing the old republics back into the fold – on their own terms, of course. (wink wink)

For 14 years he has driven Russia and Russian foreign and economic policy toward the configuration we have now.  He has rebuilt the military, bringing it back from the ash heap of history, just as history threatened to bury it in a land fill. He built up the petroleum industry to such a level that most of Europe relies upon it. (Can you say, “short hairs”?) His network of arms allies, both suppliers and customers, has ties with agents-nations that are powerfully compelling. He has rebuilt foreign bases, and added new ones to his country’s inventory.

Armed forces training is now on par with ours.

His nuclear forces take the extreme thoughts of old Soviet engineers to modern standards. Mobile launchers next to impossible to trace… Articulated reentry vehicles… ABMs (shhhh! Don’t tell!)

His clandestine forces are well versed in all of the dark, black and wet ops. While NSA plays “telephone” with our comms, his boys are acting on information, and in many cases, creating sophisticated bugs to infiltrate networks. Which brings me to what prompted me to write an article, as opposed to just Tweeting my thoughts….

From FT.com comes this article. “Cyber Snake plagues Ukraine networks”

It describes the “Snake”, a cousin to the infamous Stuxnet Worm. (Perhaps even a FIRST cousin…) The article is filled with interesting information but the money lines are these:

“The cyber weapon has been deployed most aggressively since the start of last year ahead of protests that climaxed two weeks ago with the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovich’s government.

Ouroboros gives its operators unfettered access to networks for surveillance purposes. But it can also act as a highly advanced “digital beachhead” that could destroy computer networks with wide-ranging repercussions for the public.”

Soviet Cold War invasions (making use of various forms of “beachheads”) of the past were engineered things, not haphazard knee-jerk reactions to the midnight wet dreams of empire builders. In many cases, groups of Soviet-minded individuals were identified within the nation that any of the Soviet leaders wished to bring into the fold. It didn’t matter if the target nation was to become a satellite nation or just a “fellow traveler” on the world stage. Local groups were identified, courted, supported and encouraged to do what was needed to further Soviet goals.

To see that the Russian-produced Snake was “deployed most agressively … ahead of protests” beginning last year should raise the eyes of any old intelligence world fan or ex-operator. “Ahead of“, “protests“, “overthrow“. Ukraine is the region through which most major Russian fuel lines cross into Europe. Forget for the moment that Russia has threatened to cut off fuel to Ukraine and beyond for this or that debt or outburst. Think for a moment – the fuel Russia sells is greatly needed, but so is the capital that Russia earns – it “fuels” their own economy, including the arms industry. Fuel exports were greatly responsible for the economic recovery fallowing the Union’s break up in ’91. If Ukraine “goes rouge” and decides to cut off Russian from its markets, imagine the uproar in the towns and cities throughout the Rodina.

Ukraine is on Putin’s list of republics that need to come back into the fold. Crimea is just his leverage point.

Ethnic Russians within Ukraine and Crimea are the internal forces of political change that Putin needs to realize the engineered downfall of first Crimea, and then Ukraine. He wants control of the bases in the Crimea, the pipelines transiting Ukraine, and the markets in Europe.

Remember the reports about uniformed men invading Crimea without badges or identification? Can you say Spetznaz? Advanced special forces shock troops. First 3,000, then 16, 000, now 30,000. Soon, one in every home that wants one! (Maybe I should sell lottery tickets to the masses there.)

Securing Crimea gives the Russians control of Ukrainian borders to the south, east and northeast. They can advance at will, once they have secured political advantage. Not that anyone will do anything about it. Gone are the days of unification amongst the forces of the west. When the stage is set, and Russia advances, the UK will pee its pants until it finds a reason to excuse itself from its obligation to Ukraine. The US might not wet its pants, but it will look silly, weak and will lose what’s left of its reputation among friends. The US will look like the big guy on the playground that was beat even before the fight began, by superior maneuvering on the part of its adversary. And once beaten, will have to stand there, surrounded by spectators, and feel the weight of their gazes.

I’ll say it again – here. The goal of the New Soviet is to TAKE Ukraine. Crimea is just a necessary staging ground, and a stage from which to piss on the world’s objections. With those bases under Russian control, no navy can assist Ukraine. No navy will even approach, since the Ruskies will have advanced anti-ship war-fighting weaponry in and around the peninsula, and air bases from which to back that up.

Putin’s dreams of a New Soviet Union are moving ahead. The old Soviet habit of fighting a proxy war has returned. Their habit of getting a recently formed government to “request assistance” is back. Those things worked well before, and mankind hasn’t advanced so far as to render those techniques obsolete.

What do I see happening? I hope I am wrong, but here it is…

  1. The new government in Ukraine will pass decrees on a level that will force recognition. It will act as a government, and be seen as one. Syria is on board with this, and soon Egypt will be, too. Recognition is coming.
  2. Crimea will continue to alter its appearance, and a quick and quiet takeover will give credibility to the Russian story that they are just there to help. With a peaceful collapse, the peninsula will be viewed as Russian territory just as soon as the ethnic population there holds its parades to show their love and support of the invaders. It will fall without any serious fighting. It has to. If fighting does take place, it will be between government forces and the “militias”, which are a mixture of actual militia fighters (of Russian loyalty) and unmarked Russian shock troops trained in deception and prosecution of atypical warfare.
  3. The new Ukrainian government, made up of Russian sympathizers, will then request assistance from Russia to help put down the revolts shaking the country. Just as the Arab Spring was commandeered by Al Queda, this popular uprising will see its leadership swallowed by plants inside and outside the new government. The direction of the movement, and the demands of its “leaders” will turn toward unity with Russia. The drive within western Ukraine to see close ties with Europe and the EU will weaken.
  4. Then Russia will move to assist the “legitimate government of Ukraine” from positions just over the border within Russia and from the Crimea. (And from locations within Ukraine itself.)
  5. The Soviet Union will be reborn with this great addition of territory of military strategic and tactical importance. The map will change, and become much more familiar to Col War fighters. The cancer will have spread and a new dagger will be laid against the throat of the EU.

I’m going to post the entirety of the article here for your reading pleasure. If anyone from FT.com takes offense to this, I will, of course, remove it.

Cyber Snake plagues Ukraine networks

By Sam Jones, Defence and Security Editor
©Reuters

An aggressive cyber weapon called Snake has infected dozens of Ukrainian computer networks including government systems in one of the most sophisticated attacks of recent years.

Also known as Ouroboros, after the serpent of Greek mythology that swallowed its own tail, experts say it is comparable in its complexity with Stuxnet, the malware that was found to have disrupted Iran’s uranium enrichment programme in 2010.

The cyber weapon has been deployed most aggressively since the start of last year ahead of protests that climaxed two weeks ago with the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovich’s government.

Ouroboros gives its operators unfettered access to networks for surveillance purposes. But it can also act as a highly advanced “digital beachhead” that could destroy computer networks with wide-ranging repercussions for the public.

Cyber warfare experts have long warned that digital weapons could shut off civilian power or water supplies, cripple banks or even blow up industrial sites that depend on computer-controlled safety programmes.

The origins of Ouroboros remain unclear, but its programmers appear to have developed it in a GMT+4 timezone – which encompasses Moscow – according to clues left in the code, parts of which also contain fragments of Russian text. It is believed to be an upgrade of the Agent.BTZ attack that penetrated US military systems in 2008.

The malware has infected networks run by the Kiev government and systemically important organisations. Lithuanian systems have also been disproportionately hit by it.

Ouroboros has been in development for nearly a decade and is too sophisticated to have been programmed by an individual or a non-state organisation, according to the applied intelligence unit at BAE Systems, which was the first to identify and analyse the malware.

The Financial Times has corroborated the existence of Snake with security and military analysts.

BAE has identified 56 apparent infections by Snake globally since 2010, almost all in the past 14 months. Ukraine is the primary target, with 32 recorded instances, 22 of which have occurred since January 2013.

“Ukraine is top of the list [of infections] and increasing,” said Dave Garfield, managing director for cyber security at BAE, who added that the instances were almost certainly “the tip of the iceberg”.

“Whoever made it really is a very professional outfit,” Mr Garfield added. “It has a very high level of sophistication. It is a complex architecture with 50 sub-modules designed to give it extreme flexibility and the ability to evolve. It has neat and novel technical features.”

“You never get beyond reasonable doubt levels of proof in this area but if you look at it in probabilistic terms – who benefits and who has the resources – then the list of suspects boils down to one,” said Nigel Inkster, until 2006 director of operations and intelligence for MI6 and now director of transnational threats at the think tank IISS.

“Until recently the Russians have kept a low profile, but there’s no doubt in my mind that they can do the full scope of cyber attacks, from denial of service to the very, very sophisticated.”

What does this have to do with prepping? I won’t get into that. Such thoughts are left with you, dear reader. But I’ll add to the story with another observation. China wants Taiwan, and has said it will fight for it, with nukes of necessary. Russia confirmed it will use nukes on its own soil to defend itself. Iran and North Korea are working on EMP weapons in an attempt to place themselves on par with other nations possessing the ability to cripple our electronic infrastructure. NK wants SK, and Iran want to see Israel die a horrible death. The west stands in the way of all these dreams, and EMP weapons are the new toys in the toy box of evil men.

Allow yourself to do a little day dreaming and war gaming. Do NOT let it be an exercise in depression. Do as any good prepper does. PLAN.

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